Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 86219.485373 90992.721434 95766.783826 100896.658268 106249.574683 111667.142790 117561.257007
2025-11-16 78486.845078 85777.042767 93273.055380 101546.713022 110412.401552 119617.216858 129886.392739
2025-11-23 72470.556013 81424.756479 90834.600513 101440.059206 113039.539987 125319.785906 139282.655344
2025-11-30 68836.549166 79136.725077 90157.416137 102792.684541 116843.769456 131954.738813 149398.831119
2025-12-07 65624.511078 76983.269004 89329.694211 103697.287211 119905.977610 137573.755186 158235.216831
2025-12-14 62338.482739 74495.691601 87901.734200 103714.803789 121786.974925 141725.564065 165313.586525
2025-12-21 59633.458453 72486.980260 86849.175673 104000.046152 123832.680704 145953.192814 172395.053492
2025-12-28 57966.466339 71557.871907 86926.976897 105484.860468 127171.354255 151595.529886 181060.733613
2026-01-04 56252.044600 70468.379869 86727.024674 106565.273937 129977.876474 156586.312430 188962.437345
2026-01-11 54478.657065 69215.429229 86252.790350 107249.310752 132261.977110 160933.586316 196102.282431
2026-01-18 52589.988744 67736.999430 85433.372043 107452.629939 133920.669119 164510.426148 202321.290448
2026-01-25 50885.533633 66408.450444 84727.069990 107730.306698 135618.243471 168100.013327 208541.329538
2026-02-01 49107.533926 64940.602331 83814.466123 107732.823464 136977.675186 171302.920208 214346.463988
2026-02-08 48029.566450 64299.654922 83876.441342 108896.052567 139727.406945 176170.787725 222170.319951
2026-02-15 46439.498188 62956.162860 83019.826064 108882.686936 141006.291141 179248.197525 227836.494908
2026-02-22 45657.368039 62603.044942 83365.673214 110336.995643 144075.864431 184496.860795 236155.870907
2026-03-01 44694.050775 61979.181098 83339.443337 111300.013881 146521.986752 188984.573537 243565.945739
2026-03-08 43351.285183 60818.469481 82593.261578 111319.493347 147764.302002 191980.486127 249147.466849
2026-03-15 42207.397929 59879.022011 82094.590520 111621.952213 149338.447014 195374.452076 255223.919359
2026-03-22 41683.278198 59734.648338 82599.978882 113195.293213 152514.163627 200765.143660 263803.432382
2026-03-29 41003.058074 59357.519505 82783.695091 114339.957317 155139.988695 205477.198165 271562.429757
2026-04-05 40179.176544 58760.480144 82657.520377 115064.607079 157218.807338 209504.712506 278481.768303
2026-04-12 39183.016199 57900.222944 82158.793554 115279.988443 158626.605162 212680.627166 284337.983118